US natural gas prices extended their slide on October 23, 2026, with front-month futures falling about 7.5 cents, or 2.7%, to around $2.72 per million British thermal units, their lowest in two months, after a modest gain in the previous session. That leaves prices further away from the $3 level they traded above earlier.
Weather beats the storage data
US Energy Information Administration data showed inventories rose by 77 billion cubic feet last week, a smaller build than the 79 billion cubic feet analysts expected, taking total stocks to about 3.644 trillion cubic feet. A smaller-than-expected build would usually support prices, but forecasts of mild weather over the coming weeks cut expected heating demand and proved the stronger force.
Demand below normal, exports strong
Demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, stayed below the five-year average, reflecting the mild conditions. Liquefied natural gas exports, by contrast, held at strong volumes, but they were not enough to offset weak domestic demand for now.
A contrast with oil
The decline stands out because it comes while Brent crude trades near its highest since April on tension in the Gulf. The reason is that the US gas price is set largely by local factors such as weather, production and storage, not by the geopolitical risks that drive oil.
Why it matters for traders
- Weather is the driver: as winter approaches, temperature forecasts matter more than any other data in the near term.
- Thursday’s report: the weekly storage data can trigger sharp moves when released.
- High volatility: natural gas is one of the most volatile commodities and can turn quickly with any cold snap.
A reminder: daily swings in natural gas can be very large compared with other commodities. Use small position sizes and set your stop loss in advance.
Why it matters
Mild weather forecasts cut expected heating demand and demand stayed below the five-year average, so the market looked past a smaller-than-expected storage build.
Market reaction
Front-month futures fell about 2.7% to around $2.72 per MMBtu, a two-month low, after a 77 Bcf storage injection was reported.
MIZANOVA view
In the near term, weather forecasts will remain decisive; continued mild weather could keep prices under pressure, while an early cold snap could reverse the trend quickly.
