Oil prices extended their sharp rally into the weekend. Brent crude futures settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, October 23, 2026, up $3.55 or about 3.1%, their highest close since April 29. US West Texas Intermediate rose $3.80 to $103.27. The move followed a jump of around 4% on Thursday, October 22, leaving Brent up roughly 6% for the week and WTI up about 2.3%.
Geopolitics in the driver’s seat
Rising tension in the Gulf was the main force. The Houthi movement claimed a new series of attacks on sites inside Saudi Arabia, including an Aramco facility at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and an attack on King Fahd airport in Dammam killed two people. Aramco told staff at its Dhahran headquarters to evacuate and work remotely as the fighting intensified.
At the same time, US press reports said the United States and Israel were drawing up plans to resume strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections on November 3, while the White House said Washington would not attack before the vote. Reports of incidents involving tankers near the Strait of Hormuz added to uncertainty about the security of supply.
US inventories add support
Geopolitics was not the only factor. US Energy Information Administration data showed commercial crude stocks fell by about 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ended October 16, a bigger draw than analysts expected. Gasoline stocks dropped by about 3 million barrels, and refineries ran at around 93.4% of capacity, pointing to solid demand for crude.
What about OPEC+?
Production policy was not the story this week. The OPEC+ members that manage the group’s recent output changes kept their November targets unchanged at their October 4 meeting and are due to meet again on November 1. For now, the market is taking its direction from security risks more than from supply policy.
Why it matters for traders
- Inflation: higher oil lifts inflation expectations and strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy.
- Other assets: this week’s surge in crude weighed on gold and supported bets on further US rate hikes.
- Volatility: prices driven by geopolitical headlines can reverse quickly on any sudden de-escalation.
An important reminder: energy markets react strongly to breaking news, and prices can gap between sessions. Trading oil contracts involves significant risk, so set your acceptable loss in advance and be careful with leverage.
Why it matters
Houthi attacks on sites inside Saudi Arabia, reports of plans for new strikes on Iran and incidents near the Strait of Hormuz raised the risk premium on supply. A larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories added support.
Market reaction
Brent settled at $116.72 and WTI at $103.27 on Friday, after a gain of nearly 4% on Thursday. Brent finished the week up about 6%.
MIZANOVA view
As long as security risks in the Gulf stay elevated, prices are likely to remain volatile and highly sensitive to headlines. Markets will also watch the OPEC+ meeting on November 1 and how energy costs feed into central bank decisions.
